With the strong support of national policies, new energy vehicles have developed rapidly in recent years, and the problems of short battery life and slow charging that were often criticized in the past have gradually been solved.In 2021, the cumulative sales volume of China's passenger car market was 20.146 million units, an increase of 4.4% year-on-year, fuel vehicle sales fell by 6%, and new energy vehicle sales increased by 169.1%, of which more than 80% were electric vehicles, which was responsible for the increase in total vehicle sales. It can be seen that new energy vehicles have been accepted by more and more people. Some people can't help but ask if they can buy electric vehicles in 2022?
High-speed electric vehicles are still queuing for charging on holidays. The relevant national departments are also aware of the problem and continue to expand the charging facilities. The charging problem will be solved gradually over time.In the long run, the core contradictory issues of electric vehicles are battery attenuation, economy and value preservation rate.
Electric vehicle battery attenuation
The biggest difference between electric vehicles and fuel vehicles lies in the power system. The battery attenuation of the electric vehicle power system is divided into reversible attenuation in winter and irreversible attenuation in winter.
In winter, the current solution is to sacrifice battery life to heat the battery and the effect is not good. Now that the battery material technology has not been breakthrough and developed, the author does not recommend that northern consumers buy electric vehicles for the first time.As the saying goes, look at the problem from the perspective of development. At present, the battery life of electric vehicles is growing at a rate of more than 100km/year. It is expected that the average battery life of electric vehicles will reach more than 900km in 2025. At this time, the attenuation of battery life in winter is no longer a problem.
Irreversible attenuation is caused by chemical side reactions of the battery and damage to the electrode structure during battery use. According to daily usage statistics, electric vehicle batteries are currently attenuating at a rate of 2.3% per year, and the normal battery life will be attenuated by at least 13.8% after about 6 years of use.If an electric vehicle with a battery life of 500km is used in one hand for 6 years, there is still 430km left in the follow-up flight. From the perspective of battery life, the experience of using an electric vehicle in the first hand does not have much impact.The replacement time of a normal battery life of an electric vehicle is 6-8 years, which means that the service life of the battery is basically exhausted during the cycle of an electric vehicle.At this time, it costs a lot of money to change the battery of an electric car.Judging from the current policy of "the first owner has a warranty period of 8 years or within 150,000 kilometers, the battery can be replaced for free when the battery power is reduced by 20%" promoted by many car companies, under normal use, the family car cannot meet the standard of free power replacement.Considering that the biggest advantage of electric vehicles is the extremely low daily cost of use, can the money saved make up for the depreciation of the battery?This is the issue of car economy that needs to be mentioned below.
Electric vehicle economy
Regarding the economy of electric vehicles, in fact, the current mainstream two statements are relatively one-sided.Those who say that electric vehicles save money only emphasize that the electricity bill is cheap during use, while those who say that electric vehicles are more expensive say that the value preservation rate is not high when selling the car.The following author analyzes which kind of consumer is more suitable for buying electric vehicles from the perspective of consumer demand.
According to the differences in oil prices, rechargeable electricity prices, fuel consumption and power consumption, the author collected online data on the comparison of fuel vehicles and electric vehicles and concluded that electric vehicles of the same class can save 6,000-10,000 yuan a year compared to fuel vehicles. Cost.The use of a first-hand car for 6 years can save up to 60,000 yuan.
If you buy an electric vehicle and plan to use it for a long time for more than ten years, according to the current battery accounting for 40% of the cost of the vehicle, after purchasing an electric vehicle priced at 150,000 yuan for six years, you can use the saved fuel money to renew the battery. This is also the current price range of most compact electric vehicles.If there are household charging piles that do not dislike frequent charging, it is more cost-effective to drain the performance of the battery before replacing it. This requires comprehensive consideration of the pricing of the battery in the battery recycling industry when the battery is replaced. With the support of the new national policy, waste batteries can become "sweet potatoes" and can be replaced in advance. Maybe.What should be emphasized at this time is "long-term use".
If the purchase of an electric vehicle is only intended to be used for 6-8 years, then the overall value preservation rate of the electric vehicle will be a key factor.
Value preservation rate of electric vehicles
The value preservation rate of electric vehicles is lower than that of fuel vehicles, mainly due to low mobility, fast development, and lack of vehicle inspection standards.
Second-hand fuel vehicles can be sold to second-tier cities after they are eliminated in first-tier cities, while second-tier vehicles can be sold in fourth- and fifth-tier cities, which have good liquidity.However, the strong demand for electric vehicles is basically concentrated in first-tier cities, resulting in low liquidity of used cars.Secondly, electric vehicles are in a period of rapid development. Basically, the core system will be innovated every year. Upgraded products can be bought at the same price every year, and the core such as fuel vehicle engines are relatively stable.Finally, the second-hand market lacks standards for evaluating the core systems of second-hand electric vehicles, resulting in the second-hand market is basically in a wait-and-see state, except for a few popular models, the value preservation rate is pitifully low.The "Research Report on China's Automobile Value Preservation Rate in September 2021" shows that the value preservation rate of pure electric vehicles with a three-year age is only 39.7%. Although it has improved in recent years, it is still far from the 3-year-old value preservation rate of traditional fuel vehicles. 65%.
As the data at the beginning of this article shows, the sales of new energy vehicles are currently soaring, and the increase in sales has provided conditions for the increase in the value preservation rate of electric vehicles.In 2021, Xiaopeng Motors will launch an official second-hand car recycling service, Ningde Times has launched the power-change module technology, and national policies will vigorously support the development of power-change technology and new energy going to the countryside. These all provide a guarantee for the strong second-hand electric vehicle value preservation rate. It is expected that the value preservation rate of used cars will continue to increase in 2022.As a result, for consumers who plan to only drive for about 6 years, the author recommends buying high-selling electric vehicle brands, and traditional car companies recommend BYD, GAC Aian, and New forces recommend Xiaopeng Motors and Weilai.These car companies are based on the new energy market with technology and services. In particular, NIO's power exchange model is at the forefront of all car companies. Batteries are commonly used and often new. Formal and professional battery maintenance is the core competitiveness of its car value preservation rate.