According to Reuters, U.S. government officials, industry experts, and sources say that regardless of whether Trump or Harris becomes the next U.S. president, new measures are expected to slow the import of chips, smart cars, and other products from China. Additionally, further restrictions on the export of chip manufacturing equipment and advanced artificial intelligence chips to China are anticipated.
Peter Harrell, a former U.S. National Security Council official, stated that China and the United States are engaged in fierce competition in areas like data, software, and connected devices. Last month, the U.S. proposed banning the use of Chinese software and hardware in connected and self-driving cars on U.S. roads.
Harrell explained, "If a Chinese company can access and update these devices, it raises significant concerns for the U.S. government. Connected cars are just the tip of the iceberg."
Sources indicate that if Democratic presidential candidate Harris wins the election, her approach may be more targeted and coordinated than that of Republican presidential candidate Trump. Conversely, Nazak Nikakhtar, a former U.S. Commerce Department official familiar with Trump's advisory team, expects Trump to adopt a "more aggressive" stance on export controls against China.
Nikakhtar anticipates a substantial expansion of the "Foreign Entity List," encompassing listed companies, their subsidiaries, and business partners, to restrict exports to these entities. She also noted that licenses to export U.S. technology to China may be increasingly denied, adding that Trump might even impose import restrictions on "certain products containing Chinese chips."
Bill Reinsch, another former U.S. Commerce Department official, believes Trump may adopt a "sledgehammer" approach, while Harris is likely to prefer a "scalpel" approach. "Trump's method is broad-reaching, especially evident in his current tariff proposals."
Trump has proposed tariffs of 10% or 20% on all imports (not just Chinese products), with Chinese imports facing tariffs of 60% or more. Harris has described Trump's tariff plan as a tax on consumers, though the Biden administration sees targeted tariffs as necessary, including a potential increase in semiconductor tariffs from 25% to 50% by 2025.
In response, China has reiterated that it will protect its rights and interests. Last year, China imposed export restrictions on the metals germanium and gallium-key in chip manufacturing-for national security reasons. Shortly after the U.S. tightened chip-related export regulations, China implemented new export restrictions on graphite products used in EV batteries. In June, China announced further regulations on rare earth elements.
Former U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross has remarked that the U.S. remains dependent on China for rare earth elements, emphasizing that it is risky to attempt to cut off imports of these resources.