CATL (300750.SZ), the world's largest supplier of power batteries for electric vehicles, predicts that by the end of this year, the penetration rate of electric vehicles in China is expected to reach 70%, and the average penetration rate for the whole year may exceed 60%.
On January 21st, Pan Jian, the co - chairman of CATL, made the above prediction at the Davos Forum. At 49 years old, he took this position in December last year.
Last year, the penetration rate of electric vehicles in China exceeded 50% in some individual months. However, for the whole year, the penetration rate of electric vehicles remained at 40.9%, and did not overtake that of fuel - powered vehicles. This proportion increased by 9.3 percentage points compared with 2023.
Zhang Yongwei, the vice chairman and secretary - general of the China EV100, has also publicly stated that it is expected that in 2025, China's automobile sales will be around 32 million units, maintaining a growth rate of 3%. Among them, the sales volume of new energy vehicles (including exports) is expected to reach 16.5 million units, with a year - on - year growth rate close to 30%, and the penetration rate exceeding 50%; the domestic sales volume of new energy vehicles is 15 million units, with a penetration rate exceeding 55%.
CATL dominates the domestic power battery market for electric vehicles and is the supplier for the vast majority of electric vehicle brands. The company's domestic market share last year was 45%, about 20 percentage points higher than that of BYD (002594.SZ), which ranked second.
The performance forecast disclosed by CATL on January 21st shows that its net profit last year was 49 - 53 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 11.06% - 20.12%; its revenue was 356 - 366 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8.71% - 11.20%. The company stated that the sales volume of battery products increased last year, but due to the decline in the prices of raw materials such as lithium carbonate, the product prices were adjusted accordingly, resulting in a year - on - year decrease in revenue.
Pan Jian believes that in the past three years, the government has significantly reduced subsidies for the purchase of electric vehicles, but the popularity of electric vehicles in China has still increased rapidly. This is because Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers have provided the market with better products than fuel - powered vehicles.
In his view, Chinese intelligent electric vehicles are a perfect combination of intelligence and electrification, thus providing consumers with a whole set of new functions different from traditional fuel - powered vehicles, which has contributed to the continuous and rapid growth of electric vehicle sales in China. "If intelligence is lacking, the penetration rate of electric vehicles in China may not exceed 30%."
Pan Jian believes that in the US and European markets, the growth rate of the penetration rate of electric vehicles has slowed down. The real problem does not lie in electric vehicle manufacturing or the supply chain, but in the development ability of automotive software. Taking the US as an example, the penetration rate of electric vehicles in the country last year was 8.1%, basically the same as the 7.8% penetration rate in 2023.
The co - chairman of CATL also said at the forum that the claim that China dominates the global electric vehicle supply chain and poses a threat is inaccurate. He believes that although China's production capacity and supply chain account for a very high proportion in the global electric vehicle industry, the Chinese market also accounts for 70% of the global sales volume of electric vehicles.
Pan Jian said that with the popularization of electric vehicles in different global markets, the electric vehicle supply chain will also extend to more regions. Taking CATL as an example, he said that the company's German factory started mass - producing batteries about a year and a half ago, and its Hungarian battery factory with an annual production capacity of 100 GWh is currently under construction. Last month, CATL also officially announced that it will jointly build a power battery factory with Stellantis, the world's fourth - largest automaker, in Spain.
Pan Jian also disclosed at the same time that a new joint - venture factory project between CATL and other OEMs in Europe is also expected to be announced this year. This project will become the fourth battery factory in CATL's European layout. At the end of last year, CATL officially announced its secondary listing in Hong Kong, and one of the uses of the funds raised is to promote the construction of overseas projects.
In November last year, Zeng Yuqun, the chairman of CATL, also said in an interview that if Trump, who is about to become the US president, allows Chinese companies to invest in the local electric vehicle industry chain, CATL will also consider building a factory in the US. Before that, CATL had already invested in a battery factory in Indonesia, which has rich nickel ore resources, a key raw material for producing ternary batteries.
Ternary batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries are currently the two mainstream technologies for power batteries. Compared with ternary batteries, although lithium iron phosphate batteries have a lower energy density, they have the advantages of high safety and low cost. The higher the energy density, it means that with the same volume of batteries, electric vehicles can have a longer cruising range.
Due to the technological breakthroughs of Chinese enterprises in the field of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the past two years, their energy density, fast - charging and low - temperature performance have been significantly improved. They have occupied an absolute advantage in the Chinese electric vehicle market and have begun to be favored by European and American automakers. Pan Jian said that the proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries in (global) electric vehicles has increased from 20% three years ago to 50%, and in the next three years, the proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries will be further increased to 70%, while the proportion of ternary batteries will decrease to 30%.