The Russian auto market is growing this year, according to the Moscow-based Russian Automobile Manufacturers Association (AEB). The AEB reported that in the first nine months of this year, Russian auto sales increased by 57.6% year-on-year to more than 1.2 million units. In September alone, the total sales of new passenger cars and light commercial vehicles in Russia reached 151,491 units, marking a 33% year-on-year increase.
"As expected by the AEB, sales of new cars and light commercial vehicles in Russia continued to grow in September, largely due to adjustments in disposal rates and increases in key interest rates, which prompted people to buy cars before the expected price rise," said AEB Chairman Alexey Kalitsev in a statement.
However, Kalitsev also noted: "Despite the strong performance of the Russian car market in September, total sales in the third quarter did not surpass those of the second quarter. This may suggest that we are nearing the upper limit of the market's growth potential, given declining purchasing power and delayed consumer demand. While the Russian car market may continue to grow in the coming months, the growth rate is likely to slow."
Kalitsev further added: "Sales data from the first nine months indicate that by the end of this year, Russian car sales are likely to exceed the AEB's previous forecasts. To ensure the continued development of the Russian car market, the Russian government needs to support market demand and encourage the localization of car production."
Since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, Western automakers have steadily withdrawn from the Russian car market. In their absence, Chinese automakers have effectively filled the gap.
Additionally, Gary Beecroft, an analyst at the British consulting firm CLEAR, estimated that demand for trailers (including heavy cargo trailers) in Russia has increased significantly over the past two years. He noted that Russia is acquiring more transportation assets. "We estimate that Russia's total trailer sales this year will be close to 36,000 units, compared with 24,000 units in 2021," said Beecroft. "Similarly, Chinese automakers are filling the gap left by Western manufacturers that previously exported trucks and trailers to Russia. Currently, Russia's main heavy trailer manufacturers are Tonar, Grunwald, and Nefaz/Kamaz."